TicketsBeen a while since the blog broke out some serious statistical analysis. Today feels like a day to revisit. One that has always intrigued me is the non-conference scheduling.
If you haven't read Bill Koch's piece talking with Mick about the art of scheduling from last week's Enquirer, you will definitely want to. He also talked about the high probability the Shootout will be played next year.
Much of the discussion I've had on here lately was around UK possibly coming to Clifton for a game in the Big East/SEC Challenge. According to ESPN, the Wildcats are likely to play at Georgetown instead.
Mick says he's still working with UK, which has an opening with the IU game falling out. US Bank Arena, anyone?
All of those topics will play themselves out, the one area I would like to get into is the concept that UC plays some sort of schedule far inferior to other Big East teams. Bearcats fans and detractors point out the lack of major opponents. Fair, and clearly a point Whit Babcock and Mick are working to improve.
But let's not get it twisted. UC follows the protocol most everyone else in the Big East does. It makes zero sense to load up with powerful opponents with a slate of 16 of them awaiting in January.
What I want to do is show you the numbers behind Big East schedules and you can judge for yourself how UC stacks up those in similar situations.
To start, let's look at how many BCS-football schools the basketball teams scheduled in the non-conference the past three seasons. I'll break it down by home/road/neutral. I'll add in the A-10, Missouri Valley and Mountain West since they've consistently sent multiple team to The Dance every year.
Here's the breakdown:
School Games/home/away/neutral
Cincinnati 9/2/3/4
UConn 13/4/3/6
DePaul 11/2/1/8
Georgetown 12/3/3/6
Louisville 10/5/4/1
Marquette 13/4/4/5
Notre Dame 11/1/0/10
Pittsburgh 9/1/1/7
Providence 11/4/5/2
Rutgers 9/3/2/4
Seton Hall 16/6/3/7
USF 7/2/2/3
St. John's 14/6/4/4
Syracuse 14/5/2/7
WVU 11/3/3/5
Villanova 15/4/5/6
AVERAGE 11.6/3.4/2.8/5.3
*Games against Butler and Memphis counted toward the total. Louisville and Georgetown played each team once while Syracuse played Memphis one time.
--- What does it all mean?
Well, here's the biggest takeaway from those statistics: Half of the league has played more than three high-end home games in their non-conference over the past three years. The other half has been in the same boat as the Bearcats. Five teams have the same amount of home games as the Bearcats or less. Pitt and Notre Dame have less. (Though an asterisk should be place next to ND which plays many games considered neutral site against Indiana-based squads)
About one big home game per year is the norm for the league. That's pretty standard for UC, as well. Had this been a three-year period where UC hosted Xavier twice, they'd be right on that. And with the team's profile now raised, teams will be more willing to visit Fifth Third.
--- What's one of the biggest differences between UC and this top teams? The neutral site games. Those are typically tournaments that can only select one team from the Big East. Finding a way into invite-only events has been one of the most difficult aspects of scheduling through the rebuild. Next year, UC will take a trip to Las Vegas and with the recent success, more invites will be on the way.
--- Some of these teams (Villanova, Seton Hall) benefited in this particular breakdown from playing many of the A-10 bottom-feeders. Let's not go giving too much credit to both. The standard numbers are right around 11/12 games with a home/away and a neutral site tournament. That's it. The numbers support it and there's really no denying it.
There is also no denying that is typically what the Bearcats have done. As Mick says, they would like to be doing more in the non-conference, especially to reward the home fans, but they clearly aren't doing that much less than the rest of the Big East.
If you haven't read Bill Koch's piece talking with Mick about the art of scheduling from last week's Enquirer, you will definitely want to. He also talked about the high probability the Shootout will be played next year.
Much of the discussion I've had on here lately was around UK possibly coming to Clifton for a game in the Big East/SEC Challenge. According to ESPN, the Wildcats are likely to play at Georgetown instead.
Mick says he's still working with UK, which has an opening with the IU game falling out. US Bank Arena, anyone?
All of those topics will play themselves out, the one area I would like to get into is the concept that UC plays some sort of schedule far inferior to other Big East teams. Bearcats fans and detractors point out the lack of major opponents. Fair, and clearly a point Whit Babcock and Mick are working to improve.
But let's not get it twisted. UC follows the protocol most everyone else in the Big East does. It makes zero sense to load up with powerful opponents with a slate of 16 of them awaiting in January.
What I want to do is show you the numbers behind Big East schedules and you can judge for yourself how UC stacks up those in similar situations.
To start, let's look at how many BCS-football schools the basketball teams scheduled in the non-conference the past three seasons. I'll break it down by home/road/neutral. I'll add in the A-10, Missouri Valley and Mountain West since they've consistently sent multiple team to The Dance every year.
Here's the breakdown:
School Games/home/away/neutral
Cincinnati 9/2/3/4
UConn 13/4/3/6
DePaul 11/2/1/8
Georgetown 12/3/3/6
Louisville 10/5/4/1
Marquette 13/4/4/5
Notre Dame 11/1/0/10
Pittsburgh 9/1/1/7
Providence 11/4/5/2
Rutgers 9/3/2/4
Seton Hall 16/6/3/7
USF 7/2/2/3
St. John's 14/6/4/4
Syracuse 14/5/2/7
WVU 11/3/3/5
Villanova 15/4/5/6
AVERAGE 11.6/3.4/2.8/5.3
*Games against Butler and Memphis counted toward the total. Louisville and Georgetown played each team once while Syracuse played Memphis one time.
--- What does it all mean?
Well, here's the biggest takeaway from those statistics: Half of the league has played more than three high-end home games in their non-conference over the past three years. The other half has been in the same boat as the Bearcats. Five teams have the same amount of home games as the Bearcats or less. Pitt and Notre Dame have less. (Though an asterisk should be place next to ND which plays many games considered neutral site against Indiana-based squads)
About one big home game per year is the norm for the league. That's pretty standard for UC, as well. Had this been a three-year period where UC hosted Xavier twice, they'd be right on that. And with the team's profile now raised, teams will be more willing to visit Fifth Third.
--- What's one of the biggest differences between UC and this top teams? The neutral site games. Those are typically tournaments that can only select one team from the Big East. Finding a way into invite-only events has been one of the most difficult aspects of scheduling through the rebuild. Next year, UC will take a trip to Las Vegas and with the recent success, more invites will be on the way.
--- Some of these teams (Villanova, Seton Hall) benefited in this particular breakdown from playing many of the A-10 bottom-feeders. Let's not go giving too much credit to both. The standard numbers are right around 11/12 games with a home/away and a neutral site tournament. That's it. The numbers support it and there's really no denying it.
There is also no denying that is typically what the Bearcats have done. As Mick says, they would like to be doing more in the non-conference, especially to reward the home fans, but they clearly aren't doing that much less than the rest of the Big East.