TicketsNov. 11, 2008
So, all you have to do is beat Louisville, who is down, and then Pitt in the "Ring of Red" and then Syracuse and then we all head to Miami for the Orange Bowl, right?
To that (in the words of the immortal Keith Jackson) I say, "Whoa, Nellie!"
First things first.
First off, you have to beat a team on their home field that you haven't beaten the last five times out.
Forget about Pitt, the 'Cuse and the oranges for now. UC has a tough task ahead of them in snaring a win at the pizza guy's stadium in the 'Ville.
Your last Bearcat win came there when the coaches were named Minter and Smith, and two Italian guys named Guidugli and Ragone were the quarterbacks. That was 2002 when some poor intern had to go into the bowels of Louisville's athletic complex and dig up the legendary "Keg of Nails".
The dude must've drawn the last straw in the press box as the Bearcats nearly mauled him as he toted the barrel out on the field. Oh yeah, the keg is nothing but an empty barrel. There's 'nary a nail to be found and if it were ever a keg, it looks like it may have leaked.
At one time the keg sat in Rick Minter's office and I used it as a stand for my old tape recorder that I used way back when to record the coach's weekly press gatherings. In those days, those functions included myself, Jim Kelly, Bill Koch (or whomever begrudgingly had the beat at the time) and former football SID Brian McCann who routinely would fall asleep during Minter's rambling dissertations on Texas option football.
That's what a big deal the keg was.
But, now it's big!
Absence makes the heart grow fonder!
What might look like a fraternity foot stool is now a highly-sought-after treasure for the sole reason that it's not here anymore!
Brian Kelly WANTS the Keg of Nails!
First off, he's never seen the thing. Mark Dantonio did from a distance, but he never was able to wrestle the circular wooden prize away from the Cardinals. He took a particularly dejected look at it one rainy, November afternoon in Louisville when Bobby Petrino's squad took great glee in running up the score on a beaten Bearcat squad with an injured quarterback in 2004. 70-7 your final in that one!
For that reason, I want the Keg of Nails. Of the 166 games I was able to broadcast, that loss goes down as the ultimate embarrassment. Since then, UC's gotten gradually closer, but U of L's come away with the wins and the rights to a trophy that looks like it ought to be sitting out front of Cracker Barrel.
Seemingly this is the year. UC's ranked and should be favored.
However, Steve Kragthorpe and the Cardinals are desperate as they're staring at another bowl-less season. For a group that expanded their stadium and became bowl regulars under John L. Smith and Bobby Petrino, that's not going to fly.
I'd look for Kragthorpe to open up more on offense than he has. He ran Phil Simms' kid Matt in last week for Hunter Cantwell and I wouldn't be shocked to see that again. I'd look for option passes, reverses and maybe a heavy dose of 6'8" Lakota West product Josh Chichester against UC's smaller defensive backs.
The one thing that could work against Louisville in this one is that its being played on a Friday.
We know that's been unsuccessful up here, but Louisville's made a name for themselves by playing on TV any night anyone shows up with a camera. Thing is, the Kentucky state high school playoffs are underway and a number of Louisville area teams will be teeing it up on this same night.
No doubt you'll see a decent crowd at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium, but it won't be what it might've been if Louisville was ranked and playing on a Saturday.
THE WORD ON THE BIRDS
WHEN: Friday night, November 14th, 8 p.m. ESPN2 and 700WLW
WHERE: Papa John's Cardinal Stadium (UC won pizza guy's bowl game BTW)
SERIES: Despite losing five straight, UC leads 26-20-1
LAST TIME OUT: Louisville won at Nippert, 28-24, on 10/13/07
UC OFFENSE VS. LOUISVILLE DEFENSE
Despite not having gaudy numbers against West Virginia, Tony Pike is your starting QB. You beat a ranked team on the road by running one in and throwing the game-winner in OT, the job is yours to lose. Dustin Grutza is getting healthier and is an immense help on the sidelines, but his mobility is not where it needs to be yet. There's no need to speed him up with Pike playing successfully (second in the league in pass efficiency behind USF's Matt Grothe). UC may have trouble running on Louisville as the Cards did stuff LeSean McCoy of Pitt for just 39 yards last week. However, there's not much solace in that when you get trounced 41-7. The 'Ville's INT leader is CB Woodny Turenne with four. As long as Pike throws it to the guys in the black helmets, the Bearcats should be in good shape and he shows more and more savvy with each game. If Ramsey and Goebel can bust some tough yards running, Pike should be free to pick apart the U of L defense. And, for no reason other than just a gut feeling, I think Dominick Goodman's going to stand out. As a senior, you know he wants this one as much as anyone.
NOD: I think Louisville will play inspired early on, but if the Bearcats score quickly the Cards will deflate quicker than a bad tire.
LOUISVILLE OFFENSE VS. UC DEFENSE
Steve Kragthorpe DOES know offense as his teams at Tulsa put together some wild numbers that made this hire a good one on paper to replace "the mad" Petrino. But, the Cardinals have had some injuries and their talent depth isn't what it was. Losing receiver Scott Long to a torn ACL hurts and as big as Josh Chichester is, he's really not putting up the numbers you would think someone with that body would. On the running side, Louisville has redshirt freshman Victor Anderson racking up big yards (I wonder what St. X's Darius Ashley thinks about playing behind him for a few years?). They also have a bruising fullback/runner in Brock Bolen who has given a number of teams and defensive lineman headaches. As much as you think of Louisville as a passing team, I think the key here is to stop the run. Keeping Noel Devine and Pat White from big yards last week on the ground was crucial as White had to heave the ball 38 times. If UC shuts down Anderson and Bolen, then Hunter Cantwell will have to deal with Mickens and Smith and Co. Plus, there's the sidebar of Steve Kragthorpe inserting frosh QB Matt Simms into the game again. A couple of "three and outs" and the Redbird fans could turn into "boo-birds" quick. If UC plays the smashmouth "D" that they did for 58:30 last week, they'll come out on top. If the "preventative cushion" theory comes into play again, I will join all fellow Bearcats in a primal scream!
NOD: Same deal as the previous match-up, Louisville will come out with momentum that UC needs to stop early. If the Bearcats stop them early, a lot of folks might head for the warmth or to one of the area high school games. The key is for UC to play aggressive and STAY aggressive!
SPECIAL TEAMS
At approximately 7:58 there will be a non-denominational joining of hands across the Tri-State praying that Kevin Huber never takes a safety in an end zone again. Let the probable Ray Guy award winner punt the football! Huber consistently outkicks U of L's Cory Goettsche so the Bearcats win in that department. Off the ground, you hope Jake Rogers isn't haunted by the miss at WVU because he drilled it pretty good, he just had a bad angle. Louisville's kicker of late is Ryan Payne who's perfect on XP's but hasn't been tested from any long distance. Actually, of the Cards three kickers, 36 yards is as far as they've gone on a field goal. And, don't be surprised if U of L kicks away from Mardy Gilyard. The Big East Special Teams Player of the Week has gone the distance twice. Either way, UC's fine because Kelly and Mike Elston's upbacks have had decent return yards too.
NOD: Usually I waver on a road game, but I say UC has the clear edge here.
THROW IT OUT AND SEE WHERE IT STICKS
Cardinals coach Steve Kragthorpe has 10 career losses already in less than two years. The man he replaced (as despicable as he was) was 41-9 and never lost to the Bearcats. Cardinal fans have been spoiled and so with high expectations, a .500 coach is not going to cut it for long with the "horse money" that fuels the Cardinal program. Combine some frustration with injuries, the loss of some athletes over the Petrino departure, and trying to compete with the Kentucky high school playoffs and you have quite the combustible mix going down Friday in the 'Ville. The questions are: Does Louisville rise to the occasion, resurrect their bowl chances and save face for their coach? Or, does UC answer the bell as a ranked team and do what ranked teams are supposed to do...beat the teams they're favored to beat! Again, given the climate in the Louisville program at this point, I'd expect Kragthorpe to resort to almost anything short of resurrecting Johnny Unitas from the grave to grab a win.