TicketsThe Big East football schedules will be released at noon today and we'll have a look at the slate for 2012. UC announced their final addition to the non-conference yesterday as they added FCS opponent Fordham. They are the second FCS opponent on what will be a seven-game home schedule.
Nobody inside the Athletics offense really wanted to play a second FCS school, but the timing of the conference shakeup forced many schools to make decisions they didn't want to. UC is beyond playing a one-game payday game at a Florida State or Missouri. As Whit Babcock told Bill Koch in yesterday's post, none of the details worked out to make a better game happen.
I talked to Whit about it about a month ago and the sense was an incredibly difficult process trying to make all the pieces fit as the dominoes started to fall on who would officially be staying/leaving in conference play.
I'll jump more into the schedule tomorrow after the full release comes out today, but leave it at that for now.
Let's eat...
--- Now that we've officially digested the conclusion of the 2011-12 basketball season I want to take a look at how far players who will play a major role next year came along this campaign.
There are sure to be a number of early polls ranking teams for next season once the Final Four concludes this weekend. I'd expect UC to own a spot in most of them. What does that mean? Well, if you didn't learn from this year that preseason polls mean garbage (and so do in-season and postseason, for that matter) then you haven't really been paying attention.
Also take into account when worrying about UC in the polls that two voters in the AP didn't vote for Anthony Davis as First Team All-American. The end.
This team, however, will deserve to be in the conversation.
--- Remember last year when we talked about all the offense returning for the Bearcats. Their four top scorers were back. A majority of their possessions used were all returning. SK expected more minutes. However, there were six freshmen who needed to be mixed into the rotation.
I'd argue next year the quality of play and retention will be even better.
Of course, we must jump into the KenPom stats to fully understand the debate.
--- Last year, UC brought back their top four players in terms of percentage of possessions used on offense. SK didn't play more minutes than Rashad Bishop, but when he was in the game -- he was there to score. In fact, from 2011 to 2012 his percentage of possessions used offensively went down almost five percent as he became much more selective in when to look for his shot since he spent more time on the floor.
(Key: Min %= percentage of total minutes played; Offensive Rating; %Possessions used offensively while in game; eFG%=FG% taking into account extra points for 3s; Free Throw %, 3-point %, Percentage of possessions with an Assist; percentage of possessions with a turnover)
Sean Kilpatrick
Year Min% Off Rat %Poss eFG% FT% 3pt% ASrate TOrate
2011 51.2% 112.4 24.2% 52.5% 72% 37.7% 16.2% 15.3%
2012 85.1% 114.9 20.5% 53.5% 75% 37.6% 13.0% 13.3%
--- Some wondered how SK would handle a more important role in the offense this year and not only did he handle playing a full 34 percent more minutes per game well, he improved in almost every major offensive category.
And while there are not specific statistics for defensive prowess outside of his steal percentage (which moved from 2.3 to 2.4 -- essentially identical), nobody can deny SK was a much, much better defender this year than last.
--- Most would assume SK was a much better 3-point shooter this year compared with last, but in actuality, he just fired off many more. He shot 245 3s this year compared with 122 last year.
But how different was his style of play? There is an assumption out there that his game became overly reliant on the 3-pointer, whereas that diagnosis could be a product of seeing him on the floor so much more.
Taking his minutes played into account that means last year he shot a 3-pointer once every 5.9 minutes. This year he fired one up every 5.2 minutes. Bottom line: If SK played a 30-minute game with his freshman year self, he'd have shot five 3-pointers. If he played with his sophomore year self, he'd have shot six.
Remember, his percentage from deep was nearly identical -- and 37.6 is a respectable number.
Much difference? Negligible. In fact, probably warranted.
--- Most important, his essential FG percentage (which takes 3s into account) went up a percentage point, his offensive rating went up two points and his turnover rate when down from 15.3 percent to 13.3 percent.
Outside of contributing fewer assists, he took a significant step forward in his expanded role.
--- Let's take a look at the numbers of Cashmere Wright.
Cashmere Wright
Year Min% Off Rat %Poss eFG% FT% 3pt% ASrate TOrate
2011 63.3% 105.3 22.3% 48.3% 74% 35.2% 31.5% 22.9%
2012 77.1% 105.1 22.1% 49.6% 67% 37.1% 30.0% 20.2%
In his junior season, his numbers looked very similar to his sophomore campaign. The only major differences being his field goal percentages and offensive impact increased.
He hit a higher percentage of his 3-pointers which accounted for the increased eFG%.
He turned the ball over almost 3 percent less. That number may not seem like much, but for a point guard who handles the ball as much as he does, that number holds serious weight.
And those numbers he produced this year in taking care of the ball vs. distributing for teammates was among the best in college basketball.
For example, let's take a look at the assist and turnover percentages of the point guards in the Final Four.
Player, School: Assist/Turnover
Peyton Siva, Louisville: 35.9%/29.4%
Marquis Teague, UK: 25.6%/24.1%
Aaron Craft, OSU: 24.8%/24.0%
Tyshawn Taylor, KU: 29.3/22.3%
CASHMERE WRIGHT, UC: 30.0%/20.2%
(Sidenote: How important was Kendall Marshall? Arguably the country's best PG finished the year at 45.1%/27.1%. Wow.)
--- Cash owned the lowest turnover rate of any of these point guards that maneuvered their team to the biggest stage in college basketball during a month won and lost by their position.
Only Peyton Siva assisted on a higher percentage, but when you take into account how often he turned it over, the advantage flips to Cash.
Ideally, Mick Cronin would love to see Wright's assist percentage rise to somewhere around the 35 percent Siva achieves while holding onto the ball at a similar rate, but he's already performing at an elite level nationally and I'd place him in the conversation for preseason second team Big East next season.
--- I could also take a statistical look at the player everybody knows will run away with Most Improved this season: JaQuon Parker. I won't, because anybody watched even a minute of UC basketball with Park on the floor this year knows his worth and exponential improvement.
If you are thirsting, I'll give you these two nuggets: His offensive rating rose from 73.6 to 108.3. His eFG% from 21.4 to 47.1.
Remarkable.
With Cash, SK and Parker at the guard positions next year and even showing the same level of improvement from this year again next season, UC will have one of the premier guard trios in college basketball. Period.
--- Along those same lines, one last bit of statistical analysis I found interesting that will be telling regarding the team's personality next year.
UC will be returning four players who shot at least 37 percent from 3-point range with at least 30 attempts this season.
Sean Kilpatrick: 92 of 245/37.6%
Cashmere Wright: 63 of 170/37.1%
JaQuon Parker: 26 of 70/37.1%
Jeremiah Davis III: 12 of 31/38.7%
Nobody in the Big East make that same statement. In fact, only two three teams even enter the debate.
Along those guidelines of returning players hitting 37 percent from deep with at least 30 attempts here is the list of Big East teams:
3: Pittsburgh (Woodall, Patterson, Johnson), DePaul (Crockett, Clahar, Morgan)
2: Seton Hall (Edwin, Cosby)
1: Louisville, Syracuse, USF, Providence, WVU, UConn, ND
0: Nova, Marquette, St. John's, Rutgers
That's right, about a third of the league returns one or zero players who hit 37 percent or better from deep. That will be a lot of pressure on significant shooting improvement (relatively rare) or freshman stepping in and filling it up (unlikely to have more than one or two do that).
UC should enter next season as the premier 3-point shooting team in the conference. So, everyone who complained about how many 3-pointers UC shot this season may want to buckle up because the path to success next year will be more of the same in that category.
Randomness...
--- Chris Paul tossed another ridiculous alley-oop to Blake Griffin last night. This is not a shock. However, I drove to Indy with a buddy to see the Pacers-Clippers game last week and didn't see one lob dunk to Griffin. In fact, the Clips jogged up and down the floor for 48 minutes as the Pacers did everything they wanted to other than put Lance Stephenson in the game. Am I bitter? Absolutely.
--- A Twitter follower pointed out my question about how many teams lost to the defending champion the last two years while playing their best basketball had an obvious answer: Butler. Yep, that's pretty obvious. Although, I can only say I wasn't thinking about it in terms of advancing to the championship, rather watching teams make a run after beating you. But, point taken and well played, @Harishsvemuri.
--- Jimmy Kimmel will host the Emmy's. I can get behind that.
--- Allen High School's football team in Texas is getting an absurdly large new home.
--- If you do something as a parent that forces and egg hunt cancellation, you probably need to scale back the act.
--- Zeppelin. Because every day needs some.
Nobody inside the Athletics offense really wanted to play a second FCS school, but the timing of the conference shakeup forced many schools to make decisions they didn't want to. UC is beyond playing a one-game payday game at a Florida State or Missouri. As Whit Babcock told Bill Koch in yesterday's post, none of the details worked out to make a better game happen.
I talked to Whit about it about a month ago and the sense was an incredibly difficult process trying to make all the pieces fit as the dominoes started to fall on who would officially be staying/leaving in conference play.
I'll jump more into the schedule tomorrow after the full release comes out today, but leave it at that for now.
Let's eat...
--- Now that we've officially digested the conclusion of the 2011-12 basketball season I want to take a look at how far players who will play a major role next year came along this campaign.
There are sure to be a number of early polls ranking teams for next season once the Final Four concludes this weekend. I'd expect UC to own a spot in most of them. What does that mean? Well, if you didn't learn from this year that preseason polls mean garbage (and so do in-season and postseason, for that matter) then you haven't really been paying attention.
Also take into account when worrying about UC in the polls that two voters in the AP didn't vote for Anthony Davis as First Team All-American. The end.
This team, however, will deserve to be in the conversation.
--- Remember last year when we talked about all the offense returning for the Bearcats. Their four top scorers were back. A majority of their possessions used were all returning. SK expected more minutes. However, there were six freshmen who needed to be mixed into the rotation.
I'd argue next year the quality of play and retention will be even better.
Of course, we must jump into the KenPom stats to fully understand the debate.
--- Last year, UC brought back their top four players in terms of percentage of possessions used on offense. SK didn't play more minutes than Rashad Bishop, but when he was in the game -- he was there to score. In fact, from 2011 to 2012 his percentage of possessions used offensively went down almost five percent as he became much more selective in when to look for his shot since he spent more time on the floor.
(Key: Min %= percentage of total minutes played; Offensive Rating; %Possessions used offensively while in game; eFG%=FG% taking into account extra points for 3s; Free Throw %, 3-point %, Percentage of possessions with an Assist; percentage of possessions with a turnover)
Sean Kilpatrick
Year Min% Off Rat %Poss eFG% FT% 3pt% ASrate TOrate
2011 51.2% 112.4 24.2% 52.5% 72% 37.7% 16.2% 15.3%
2012 85.1% 114.9 20.5% 53.5% 75% 37.6% 13.0% 13.3%
--- Some wondered how SK would handle a more important role in the offense this year and not only did he handle playing a full 34 percent more minutes per game well, he improved in almost every major offensive category.
And while there are not specific statistics for defensive prowess outside of his steal percentage (which moved from 2.3 to 2.4 -- essentially identical), nobody can deny SK was a much, much better defender this year than last.
--- Most would assume SK was a much better 3-point shooter this year compared with last, but in actuality, he just fired off many more. He shot 245 3s this year compared with 122 last year.
But how different was his style of play? There is an assumption out there that his game became overly reliant on the 3-pointer, whereas that diagnosis could be a product of seeing him on the floor so much more.
Taking his minutes played into account that means last year he shot a 3-pointer once every 5.9 minutes. This year he fired one up every 5.2 minutes. Bottom line: If SK played a 30-minute game with his freshman year self, he'd have shot five 3-pointers. If he played with his sophomore year self, he'd have shot six.
Remember, his percentage from deep was nearly identical -- and 37.6 is a respectable number.
Much difference? Negligible. In fact, probably warranted.
--- Most important, his essential FG percentage (which takes 3s into account) went up a percentage point, his offensive rating went up two points and his turnover rate when down from 15.3 percent to 13.3 percent.
Outside of contributing fewer assists, he took a significant step forward in his expanded role.
--- Let's take a look at the numbers of Cashmere Wright.
Cashmere Wright
Year Min% Off Rat %Poss eFG% FT% 3pt% ASrate TOrate
2011 63.3% 105.3 22.3% 48.3% 74% 35.2% 31.5% 22.9%
2012 77.1% 105.1 22.1% 49.6% 67% 37.1% 30.0% 20.2%
In his junior season, his numbers looked very similar to his sophomore campaign. The only major differences being his field goal percentages and offensive impact increased.
He hit a higher percentage of his 3-pointers which accounted for the increased eFG%.
He turned the ball over almost 3 percent less. That number may not seem like much, but for a point guard who handles the ball as much as he does, that number holds serious weight.
And those numbers he produced this year in taking care of the ball vs. distributing for teammates was among the best in college basketball.
For example, let's take a look at the assist and turnover percentages of the point guards in the Final Four.
Player, School: Assist/Turnover
Peyton Siva, Louisville: 35.9%/29.4%
Marquis Teague, UK: 25.6%/24.1%
Aaron Craft, OSU: 24.8%/24.0%
Tyshawn Taylor, KU: 29.3/22.3%
CASHMERE WRIGHT, UC: 30.0%/20.2%
(Sidenote: How important was Kendall Marshall? Arguably the country's best PG finished the year at 45.1%/27.1%. Wow.)
--- Cash owned the lowest turnover rate of any of these point guards that maneuvered their team to the biggest stage in college basketball during a month won and lost by their position.
Only Peyton Siva assisted on a higher percentage, but when you take into account how often he turned it over, the advantage flips to Cash.
Ideally, Mick Cronin would love to see Wright's assist percentage rise to somewhere around the 35 percent Siva achieves while holding onto the ball at a similar rate, but he's already performing at an elite level nationally and I'd place him in the conversation for preseason second team Big East next season.
--- I could also take a statistical look at the player everybody knows will run away with Most Improved this season: JaQuon Parker. I won't, because anybody watched even a minute of UC basketball with Park on the floor this year knows his worth and exponential improvement.
If you are thirsting, I'll give you these two nuggets: His offensive rating rose from 73.6 to 108.3. His eFG% from 21.4 to 47.1.
Remarkable.
With Cash, SK and Parker at the guard positions next year and even showing the same level of improvement from this year again next season, UC will have one of the premier guard trios in college basketball. Period.
--- Along those same lines, one last bit of statistical analysis I found interesting that will be telling regarding the team's personality next year.
UC will be returning four players who shot at least 37 percent from 3-point range with at least 30 attempts this season.
Sean Kilpatrick: 92 of 245/37.6%
Cashmere Wright: 63 of 170/37.1%
JaQuon Parker: 26 of 70/37.1%
Jeremiah Davis III: 12 of 31/38.7%
Nobody in the Big East make that same statement. In fact, only two three teams even enter the debate.
Along those guidelines of returning players hitting 37 percent from deep with at least 30 attempts here is the list of Big East teams:
3: Pittsburgh (Woodall, Patterson, Johnson), DePaul (Crockett, Clahar, Morgan)
2: Seton Hall (Edwin, Cosby)
1: Louisville, Syracuse, USF, Providence, WVU, UConn, ND
0: Nova, Marquette, St. John's, Rutgers
That's right, about a third of the league returns one or zero players who hit 37 percent or better from deep. That will be a lot of pressure on significant shooting improvement (relatively rare) or freshman stepping in and filling it up (unlikely to have more than one or two do that).
UC should enter next season as the premier 3-point shooting team in the conference. So, everyone who complained about how many 3-pointers UC shot this season may want to buckle up because the path to success next year will be more of the same in that category.
Randomness...
--- Chris Paul tossed another ridiculous alley-oop to Blake Griffin last night. This is not a shock. However, I drove to Indy with a buddy to see the Pacers-Clippers game last week and didn't see one lob dunk to Griffin. In fact, the Clips jogged up and down the floor for 48 minutes as the Pacers did everything they wanted to other than put Lance Stephenson in the game. Am I bitter? Absolutely.
--- A Twitter follower pointed out my question about how many teams lost to the defending champion the last two years while playing their best basketball had an obvious answer: Butler. Yep, that's pretty obvious. Although, I can only say I wasn't thinking about it in terms of advancing to the championship, rather watching teams make a run after beating you. But, point taken and well played, @Harishsvemuri.
--- Jimmy Kimmel will host the Emmy's. I can get behind that.
--- Allen High School's football team in Texas is getting an absurdly large new home.
--- If you do something as a parent that forces and egg hunt cancellation, you probably need to scale back the act.
--- Zeppelin. Because every day needs some.