TicketsThe Bearcats took off and landed without a problem and are stationed in Washington, D.C. They'll go through a 40-minute open practice/shootaround at the Verizon Center and meet with the media around 4:30 p.m.
No word on if Helen Thomas will be using her free time to interrogate the coaches from the front row of the pressers. (What? Political humor doesn't play well here?)
Then, of course, Thursday will feel like the longest day ever as UC waits through a day of basketball for the late game to take on Missouri.
Let's eat...
--- I've been thinking recently about a concept I've been hearing a ton of this year. It's something I've realized but never truly put into statistical form. It's the concept that good offense beats good defense in the NCAA tournament.
Mike DeCourcy stomps hard on this philosophy and, per usual, truth exists per his point. The last three champs have been either 1 or 2 in the country in offensive efficiency. More importantly here, the UC game would serve as the epitome of good offense vs. good defense.
The Tigers are 9th in the country averaging 81.4 points per game and 13th in assists per game, averging 16.5. Add in all five starters in double figures and you have a well-oiled offensive machine.
UC, of course, led the Big East in points allowed per game.
In the standard statisical analysis and overuse of KenPom you've all come to expect here in The Breakfast, I thought I'd take a look at the top 10 teams in terms of Offensive efficiency vs the top 10 teams in defensive efficiency in the NCAA tournament the past two years and see how they performed. .
To take seeding into account, I included the number of wins over higher seeded teams in the upset category. (Same seed received a half point) I also included the lower loss for games lost to a lower seed, even if it was only by one spot.
Here you go:
2010:
OFFENSIVE RATING
Seed/Team OffErank Record Upsets LowerLoss
1 Duke 1 6-0 1 0
1 Kansas 2 1-1 0 1
3 Baylor 3 3-1 0 0
8 Cal 4 1-1 0 0
4 Maryland 5 1-1 0 1
6 Notre Dame 6 0-1 0 1
2 Ohio St. 7 2-1 0 1
1 Syracuse 8 2-1 0 1
3 GTown 9 0-1 0 1
7 BYU 10 1-1 0 0
TOTALS 17-9 (65%) 1 6
DEFENSIVE RATING
Seed/Team DefERank Record Upsets LowerLoss
9 Florida St. 1 0-1 0 0
4 Purdue 3 2-1 0 0
1 Duke 4 6-0 0 0
5 Butler 5 5-1 2 1/2 0
1 Kentucky 6 3-1 0 1
5 Temple 7 0-1 0 1
1 Kansas 8 1-1 0 1
11 Old Dom. 10 1-1 1 0
6 Tennessee 11 3-1 1 0
10 GTech 12 1-1 1 0
TOTALS 22-9 (71%) 5 1/2 3
Observations:
--- This 2010 Tennessee team continues to pop up and draw comparisons to the 2011 Bearcats. Offensively, the Vols spread the ball around and utilized a number of contributors. They played well down the stretch but were bounced in an embarrassing defeat against a hot Kentucky team in the SEC tournament. Defensively was their calling card.
They went on to the Elite 8 with an upset against Ohio St. and lost by one point to Michigan State.
Sound familiar?
UC spreads the ball around with nearly identical offensive and defensive efficiency numbers and was playing well until running into a buzzsaw in the conference tournament.
I'm not saying UC will make the same type of run, but it is far from unprecedented.
--- So much for good offense beating good defense. Four different teams who entered with top 10 defensive ratings beat higher seeds and it served as the backbone for Butler's magical run. ODU, Tennessee and Georgia Tech all beat teams with at least three seeds difference.
--- Not only did the top defenses pull more upsets, they also were far better at avoiding losses to lower seeded teams. There were twice as many lower-seeded losses among the offensive powers in comparison to the defensive powers.
--- At the end of the day, it's hard to argue with the No. 1 team in offensive efficiency winning the tournament, but what likely gets lost in that statistic is Duke was No. 4 in defense. Any coincidence the 4 and 5 best defensive teams played for the title? Likely not.
--- As for avoiding the opening-round loss, which would particularly apply in the Bearcats case, the results were almost inconclusive. Georgetown's loss to Ohio was among the biggest upsets in last year's tourney but Temple falling as the 5 seed and defensive-oriented team calls it even.
Yet, if you are looking to predict a 6-11 matchup of great offense and great defense, well, ODU-Notre Dame would be just that. With Old Dominion holding off ND, 51-50.
--- Let's take a look at 2009, a year dominated by chalk prevailing more than any other in recent memory.
2009
OFFENSIVE RATING
Seed/Team OffErank Record Upsets LowerLoss
1 UNC 1 6-0 0 0
1 Pitt 2 3-1 0 1
6 UCLA 3 1-1 0 0
6 Ariz. St. 4 1-1 0 0
4 Gonzaga 5 2-1 0 0
2 Oklahoma 6 3-1 0 0
12 Arizona 7 2-1 1 0
3 Missouri 8 (13D) 3-1 1 0
6 Marquette 9 1-1 0 0
2 Duke 10 2-1 0 1
TOTALS 25-9 (74%) 2 2
DEFENSIVE RATING
Seed/Team DefERank Record Upsets LowerLoss
2 Memphis 1 2-1 0 1
1 Louisville 2 3-1 0 1
1 UConn 3 4-1 0 1
5 Illinois 4 0-1 0 1
5 Purdue 5 2-1 1 0
3 Kansas 7 2-1 0 1
14 S.F. Austin 8 0-1 0 0
4 Washington 9 1-1 0 1
2 Michigan St. 10 5-1 2 0
4 Xavier 11 2-1 0 0
TOTALS 21-10 (67%) 3 6
Off TWO-YEAR TOTAL 42-18 3 8 (Avg seed: 3.9)
Def TWO-YEAR TOTAL 43-19 8 1/2 9 (Avg seed: 5)
Observations:
--- Obviously, 2009 was a better year for the offenses with those going 10-0 in the first round, but yet again a top 10 defense made its way into the title game against a team with a top 10 offense.
--- You can point to the six losses to teams with lower seeds, however, three of those came against Michigan St. Sparty ran through UConn, U of L and Kansas that year. So, those numbers aren't near as lopsided as it would seem.
--- Also, Missouri was responsible for three of the wins for the offensive side, but they were no slouch defensively, with the 13th best efficiency rating.
--- On the whole defenses over the past two seasons endured less losses to lower ranked seeds (if you discount the Spartans wins) and pulled more upsets of higher ranked teams. They had an nearly even record despite averaging more than a full seed less in the brackets.
At the very least, these statistics discount the concept that good offense beats good defense in the NCAA tournament, it at the most shows defense can and will predicate victories.
--- For those of you looking to apply some of these figures to this year's bracket, here is your link to the top 10 teams in adjusted defense in for this season. Also, Luke Winn of SI did some standard superb breakdown in these areas regarding this year's tournament teams.
--- Moving on, the big stage seems to suit Dion Dixon just fine. Since the stakes kicked up in late February, Dixon has been on a tear and re-established himself as the team's most consistent perimeter scorer.
Since Feb. 19 against Providence, Dixon is averaging 14.6 points a game. He's hit 16 of 36 3-pointers in that span (44 percent).
He's been the gym rat who refused to slow down his work ethic ever since last season ended against Dayton. That continued throughout this year -- whether he was hitting or going through a slump as he did in the middle of the Big East season.
The combination of hard work and love of the big moment created his latest surge.
"I'm loving the big stage," Dixon said with a smile. "I just want to play aggressive. For games, I will be jumped up. I just have been locked in. Shooting and making big plays."
He'll be even more important as a primary ballhandler on Thursday against Missouri's scrambling press.
--- Tommy G and Chuck check in from DC.
--- According to the Columbia Tribune, the Tigers say they are not going to quit heading into the tournament. Good to know. In related news, The Paul Dehner Jr. Press-Gazette is reporting President Barack Obama plans to run for re-election in 2012 (It's a political humor bonanza!)
--- Bill Koch poses the question if UC will combat Missouri's pressure defense with some of its own? Would that be playing directly into the hands of a Tigers team hoping to turn Thursday into a track meet?
--- Chad Brendel explores the topic as well, saying that offense is the best defense against the Tigers.
--- Can Mizzou make stops? The Kansas City Star says that may be the question of the night.
--- CBSsports makes a case for the 11 seeds providing the upsets this weekend with some Mizzou analysis.
--- Do you want more statistical analysis? Just can't get enough? Here's a fantastic piece from Nate Silver of the New York Times on the wacky world of seeding translating to success. It shows favorably to the sixth seed and as unfavorably as possible to the 8-9. Very, very interesting read.
--- Digest and analyze all those statistics then beat your head against a wall when you take into consideration how much luck has to do with this tournament.
--- You want a sign that blogs are taking over the media world. Georgetown blog Casual Hoya had this excellent Q and A with President Bill Clinton.
--- These greatest moments in NCAA tournament history Lego-ized are phenomenal. My favorite is the sign in the crowd of the Michigan-UNC game that reads "That's All Right, This Won't Count Anyway"
--- Listen to Mo Egger (that statement can and will find people in significant trouble). Seriously, nobody cares how the outcome of this game affects your bracket.
--- On to some randomness...
--- Happiness is overrated, apparently. Can we call this the Lewis Black Thesis?
--- A PSA about the incredible power of the beautiful woman.
--- I would be remiss without a tribute to Nate Dogg, who passed away last night. The guy sang the hook on one of the great hip hop songs of all time and had a long list of other incredible hooks as well.