Bearcats Breakfast 10.14.11

by Paul Dehner Jr.

Happy Homecoming to everyone. May your weekend be merry and your front yard not be trashed. Should be an action-packed few days all over the city. In case you are still wondering what the heck is going on and where...

Happy Homecoming to everyone. May your weekend be merry and your front yard not be trashed. Should be an action-packed few days all over the city. In case you are still wondering what the heck is going on and where it is going on at: here are the details.
UC.jpg
As you should know, UC vs. U of L, Saturday, noon, Paul Brown Stadium. PBS is officially transforming into Bearcats central.

According to Bill Koch, the attendance is projected shy of the 45,000 watermark for now, but plenty of good seats are still available and a heavy walkup on what is supposed to be a perfect day for football could change that. As I wrote earlier this week, this could be an important time to attend a game.

The Cats have already been down to practice at the stadium and will do so again. It really has become a bit of a home away from home for them. They talked about it on this video from CoachButchJones.com.

As for the game, the "experts" are projecting a 15-point UC victory. With Louisville dealing with a new play-caller in his second game, a freshman QB making his second start and an offensive lineman who was playing defense two weeks ago, they appear to be in shambles -- at least on offense. On defense, they are one of the best UC will face this year.

On that note, here are this week's Four Stats For Victory:

1. Three takeaways.
The Cardinals are tied for last in the conference in turnover margin at minus-4. Meanwhile, the Bearcats are second in the country at plus-12. The Turnover Margin Express needs to take advantage of an offense begging to turn it over with youth everywhere and position groups pressing to score touchdowns. A defensive TD for UC would make it three in the last four weeks. Doing so seems a distinct possibility.

2. Three spins for ZC. Zach Collaros has gone five games into the season without throwing for more than 300 yards. He did so four times last season. The ascension of the offensive line, breakaway ability of Isaiah Pead and turnovers leading to short fields contributed to that, but still, everybody knows ZC can fling it. The Cards have done a good job against the run this year. They are 10th in the country. They can be susceptible to the pass, though. This could be the game where the keys are handed to Collaros to fly this team to victory. He throws for 300 -- as long as INTs are limited -- this is a win for UC.

3. No special teams TDs. In games where a home team is heavily favored, the ultimate hiccup comes from unforeseen special teams touchdowns. The Bearcats have done a good job preventing those this season and the Cards are without one. In fact, Louisville only has two KO returns longer than 30 yards all season. Making sure both trends stay the same will keep the game in the hands of the offense and defense, where UC wants it to stay.

4. Red zone defense at 50 percent or better. Louisville's offense in the red zone has been a dumpster fire this season. In 11 trips they managed only five touchdowns and two field goals. That means 37 percent of the time they come away empty. Yikes. Take UC by comparison, in 28 trips to the red zone they own 20 TDs and four FGs. Not allowing the Cardinals any satisfaction -- particularly early on -- will build their scoring frustrations even more and allow the trend to continue.

--- Andrea Adelson at ESPN
with a feature on the development of JK Schaffer -- frontrunner for BE Defensive Player of the Year.

--- If this game goes like many Cardinals games this year, you'll develop a close, personal relationship with the head referee. Let's hope for entertainment's sake there's some givin' 'em the business calls.

--- I'm actually headed down to UC to talk with Mick Cronin (look for much more from that coming on the blog). It's a breath of fresh air to be able to talk basketball in the middle of all this football madness. An even bigger breath of fresh air to talk about a UC team with a projected preseason Top 25 ranking for the first time under Cronin.

Speaking of rankings, a few more came out yesterday.

Dick Vitale placed UC at 21.

Gary Parrish and Jeff Goodman put UC 16th.

Jerry Palm had UC as a 5 seed. (BTW, how about the NCAA pods this year? Columbus, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Louisville. Half the field within a five-hour drive.)

--- ESPN The Magazine had this great story on a former UC hoops player.

--- Two notes on former UC football players:

1) Unfortunately, Patriots DL Mike Wright was placed on IR Thursday. He racked up 10.5 sacks in his last 26 games and became a force on the line for Bill Belichick. Unfortunately, an early-season concussion has become too much to overcome. Best wishes to Mike in his recovery.

2) Jason Kelce isn't wasting any time getting in the middle of things in Philadelphia. He stood up to some Eagles fans doing, well, what Eagles fans do, and being negative. They showed up across the street from the practice facility with a sign reading "Andy, the time's...to go"

Kelce and fellow lineman Evan Mathis asked the fans to take the sign down. It put them in the middle of an internet and sports talk radio firestorm (one of the worst firestorms, to be sure). Anyway, here's the story, including Kelce's smart, calculated response.

Some randomness....

--- There is nothing about Brandon Marshall that builds confidence in the human race.

--- How do American Pie movies continue to make it up the Hollywood ladder? This is the ultimate proof that there are officially no more comic books left to be made into movies.

--- Seriously, over/under
on total episodes actually made of a Fred Durst/Limp Bizkit CBS comedy series? I'll open at two and a half.

--- NPR World Cafe is looking back at the 90s. Getting old sucks.

--- Happy Homecoming everybody
, there's really only one way to kick it off.